So much of it is luck

If you look at Denis Menchov and the stuff written about him before this year's Tour de France, you would think he'd be in the catbird seat for a podium finish.

Well, we're three stages into the 2008 event and Menchov has hit a bump in the road that has put him pretty far back in the overall standings.

Think about it. Had Menchov not been caught up in a crash in yesterday's stage 3, he'd be right up front with Valverde and Evans and the other big names that are less than two minutes behind the leader.

What's going to happen in today's time trial is a likely fall from the front by Romain Feillu of France. Even with his 1:45 lead, I'm guessing that Valverde, Hincapie and even Menchov will leap over this little Frenchman.

After looking at the stats, Menchov is at 2:30 to the leader which means he's at :45 to Valverde and that's going to be tough to make up. Even though we're only a few stages in.

Well, I'm about to watch today's time trial stage and will be back after I find out what happens.

*By the way, cycling is on the minds of people everywhere. I wrote about it on my regular blog and Bella English wrote about it in the Boston Globe this past weekend.

SPOILER - George Hincapie

Comments after the first stage of this year's Tour de France from George Hincapie...

"Keep trying tomorrow"

"It was a very tough day"

"Very nervewracking, bunch of crashes. I'm glad to get that over with."

"We had a good attack there at the end, but it was a bit too windy."

George is now in 29th place after stage 1. And he's listed at the same time as the winner, Valverde.

SPOILER - Stage 1 Winner - 2008 Tour de France

The winner of the first stage of the 2008 Tour de France is Alejandro Valverde.

He rides for team Caisse d'Epargne.

He's also my pick to win the tour this year.

WOWSA.

Even if you know who won this stage, it's well worth it to watch the last four minutes of today's stage for some amazing cycling.

Huge time gaps at the end.

I'll post the overall standings later.

Team Columbia

George Hincapie is currently riding for the former T-Mobile team, now called team Columbia.

The group is going about 80KM. Three Columbia riders are leading the peleton with 1.5KM to go in stage 1 of the 2008 Tour de France.

Erik Zabel is in fourth place right now.

More to come in a few minutes. It's all uphill from here with 1.1KM to go.